Production Machining

JAN 2018

Production Machining - Your access to the precision machining industrial buyer.

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53.5 MICHAEL GUCKES, MBA Chief Economist, Gardner Intelligence Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for almost 20 years among a range of industries. Michael received his B.A. in political science and economics from Kenyon College and his MBA from The Ohio State University. mguckes@gardner November Index Shows Expansion at Slower Rate Supplier deliveries experienced slightly faster growth. 60 55 50 45 40 PRECISION MACHINING INDEX 60 55 50 45 40 35 PRECISION MACHINING NEW ORDERS AND PRODUCTION (3-month moving average) The November readings of the Precision Machining Index indicated a significant slowing of the industry's growth rate. Index readings from the 2017 calendar year have been volatile, however, with an average monthly reading of 55.5, the industry has grown strongly during the calendar year. The latest figures for new orders and production fell below their year-to- date average readings of 58.7 and 59.5, respectively. Significant swings in the monthly readings during 2017 have resulted in a year of strong yet volatile growth. n Production n New Orders 54.3 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX: PRECISION MACHINING 10 PRODUCTION MACHINING :: JANUARY 2018 R egistering 54.3 for November, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Precision Machining moved lower after two months of strong expansionary gains. For the year-to-date period, the index has averaged 55.5 and increased by approximately 1 percent in 2017. Gardner Intelligence's review of the underlying data indicates that supplier delivery production and new orders lifted the business index higher, while employment, backlog and exports pulled the index lower. For November, only exports contracted slightly after having expanded in September and October. All components of the index moved lower in November except for supplier deliveries, which recorded slightly faster growth as compared with the prior month. November saw slower growth in new orders and production as compared with October's figures. Although the latest figures are below their year-to-date averages, they are well above the average readings from 2015 and 2016 and compare favorably with the strong readings of 2014 when the Precision Machining Index experienced solid cyclical growth. In the three-month period from the beginning of September to the end of November, backlog has drastically transitioned from record high growth to being almost flat. For the calendar year, backlog has experienced volatile expansion with only one month of contraction during that time. Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. More information about the Precision Machining Index can be found at

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