Production Machining

DEC 2017

Production Machining - Your access to the precision machining industrial buyer.

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MICHAEL GUCKES, MBA Chief Economist, Gardner Intelligence Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting work for almost 20 years among a range of industries. Michael received his B.A. in political science and economics from Kenyon College and his MBA from The Ohio State University. mguckes@gardner October Business Index Increased 15.5 Percent in a Year's Time The latest reading set a record high not experienced since before 2012. 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 PRECISION MACHINING INDEX 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 PRECISION MACHINING SUPPLIER DELIVERIES 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 1/16 7/16 1/17 7/17 According to the Precision Machining Index, the industry quickly transitioned from contraction to expansion between 3Q2016 and 1Q2017. The index then indicated steady growth in 2Q2017, but during the last three months ending in October has indicated increasing growth. Readings of supplier deliveries throughout the year have been consistently expansionary. Gardner Intelligence believes that the strong expansionary readings for production and new orders throughout the calendar year— and particularly in the last three months—is likely to provide further upside support for supplier deliveries readings in future readings. 57.0 GARDNER BUSINESS INDEX: PRECISION MACHINING 14 PRODUCTION MACHINING :: DECEMBER 2017 R egistering 57.0 for October, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Precision Machining made its third month of consecutive gains after a lackluster second quarter. Excluding prior highs from earlier this year, the October reading was higher that readings from any of the past five years. For the year-to-date and 12-month periods, the index increased approximately 6.0 percent and 15.5 percent, respec- tively. e considerable change in the 12-month period resulted from the 9-month period during which the index changed from being strongly contractionary in July 2016 to strongly expansionary by March of 2017. Gardner Intelligence's review of the underlying data indicates that production, new orders and supplier deliveries lifted the business index higher, while backlog, employment and exports pulled the index lower because they grew more slowly than the faster expanding components. No components contracted for the month. Exports, which recorded only contrac- tionary readings for the year through August, posted its second, and consecutive, expansionary reading in October. Stay ahead of the curve with Gardner Intelligence. More information about the Precision Machining Index can be found at

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