Production Machining

NOV 2018

Production Machining - Your access to the precision machining industrial buyer.

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MICHEL GUCKES, MB Chief Economist, Gardner Intelligence Michael has performed economic analysis, modeling and forecasting ork for almost 20 years among a range of industries. Michael received his B.. in political science and economics from Kenyon College and his MB from The Ohio State University. mguckes@gardner eb.com Index Retains Gains of Prior Month Business Index Sustains Expansion in ugust Turnaround 60 50 40 PRECISION MCHINING INDEX PRECISION MCHINING NE ORDERS ND EXPORTS / / / / / / / / / / / / September's Precision Machining Index reading represents a continuation of the industry expan- sion first realized at the beginning of 2017. The latest expansion in ne orders, despite the recent heightening of ne trade tariffs, may illustrate the strength of the U.S. economy. The impact of ne tariffs on merican goods exported to China took effect late in September and may have played a factor in the month's contracting export reading. Despite this, total ne orders groth as strong. 56.1 Q Exports Q Ne Orders 70 60 50 40 30 / / / / / / / / / / / / GRDNER BUSINESS INDEX: PRECISION MCHINING 20 PRODUCTION MCHINING :: NOVEMBER 2018 R egistering 56.1 for September, the Gardner Business Index (GBI): Precision Machining largely sustained the expansionary turnaround reported for August. Compared with the same month one year ago, the index increased by 0.5 percent. Since hitting a surprise low point in July, the Index has rebounded largely on the strength of supplier deliveries, production and new orders. For the latest month, Gardner Intelligence's review of the underlying data indicate that the Index was supported by supplier deliveries—which has been the fastest expanding component for seven consecutive months—followed by production and new orders. †e index's average-based calculation was weakened by employment, backlog and exports. Only exports reported a contracting reading during the month. Exports recorded its lowest reading in over a year as it fell almost three points, putting this component in contraction territory. Earlier in the year, exports oscillated around the 50 mark, which is the de‹ning line between expansion and contraction. Export's low reading for the month may have been in part caused by Chinese tariŒs of between 5 percent to 10 percent on U.S. goods starting on Sept. 24. Despite the impact that tariŒs may have on exports in coming months, the recent history of strong expansion in new orders and backlogs supports the case that U.S. manufacturing is well positioned to withstand the volatility from changes to international trade. Gardner continues to be encouraged by the substantial expansion of supplier deliveries, new orders and production as they are considered signi‹cant leading indicators of the future health of manufacturing. Stay ahead of the curve ith Gardner Intelligence. More information about the Precision Machining Index can be found at gardnerintelligence.com.

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