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Contributed by Michael Guckes T he tangible data behind the auto industry has been decidedly mixed: year-to-date sales volume data and forecasted oil prices are supporting the industry while auto financing and used vehicle metrics show cracks in the armor. ese things are the "lower" story, the one that many analysts are telling because forecasting things that don't change is an easier task. If you buy a car in the next year or two, it will look, feel and perform much like your last car, and you will think of it like a newer version of your last car. at next car will not change how you spend your time, where you spend your time and with whom you spend your time. However, there is an "upper" story to this industry, the one that is about what happens when a car 10 years (or less) from now can change the who, what, when and where of how you live your life. It's the story about how an industry will be radically transformed because it provides a product and service that is radically transforming lives. The Lower Story: Here and Now Auto vehicle sales data for the first quarter of this year suggests it is going to be another strong year with more than 17 million units sold. However, the composition of those total figures is changing as car sales are slowing down and light truck sales are picking up. is pattern, however, should benefit the industry, given the higher profit margins in trucks. As we look to what may happen in the remainder of 2017, there are several long-term trends in the economy that may suggest the industry will see continued strength. (See chart below.) Consumer Confidence and Unemployment Consumer confidence and auto sales—and especially in light truck sales—have long moved together as the confidence index essentially gauges the desire to purchase the light truck. Furthermore, two factors which are essential to vehicle sales—wages and employment—have been showing gains over the last several years and continue to show improve- ment. With the current unemployment rate of 4.5 percent and businesses reporting that it is becoming harder to find workers, we can expect to see more potential workers coming back into the employment picture and wages to increase. ese factors should support healthy auto sales this year. The Present and Future Automotive Industry Conditions: A Commentary Light Truck Sales Move Strongly with Consumer Confidence 30 PRODUCTION MACHINING :: JUNE 2017 SPECIAL REPORT